Kentucky Derby 134

March Madness is significant for me in two ways.  First, I am a die-hard basketball fan and love the tournament action all over the country.  Second, it is the time when Derby prep races begin to make sense to me.  The “season” draws to an end and “tournament time” begins.  That’s exactly what’s happening right now.  Kentucky defeated Florida today.  Louisville barely lost to Georgetown in the final season game on the road; but, they definitely are going to be a factor in the Big East.  Drake is going to give someone a run for their money.  Can Memphis learn to shoot free throws in the next ten days?  If not, can they play defense well enough to live up to their top ranking? And what about Michael Beasley???  Yes…I know…the contenders are emerging  and you can see little brackets in your sleep.   In horse racing, you might say we’ve played many of the conference tourneys and now the “big dance” begins. 

So…..who’s going to the dance?

It seems to me, if a son of Cherokee Run out of a Mr. Prospector mare can go a mile and a quarter, War Pass is the 2008 Street Sense.  He has done absolutely nothing wrong.  While we are all a bit skeptical of the breeding and the potential distance limitations, there is certainly nothing to doubt about his on-track performances.  Last fall, we had his racing manager, Ernie Reichard, on our radio show.  He told us very plainly that War Pass was the best two year old in the country. He told us to look for him in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  I guess he knew his horse!  War Pass is slated to defend his unblemished record with a run in the Tampa Derby for trainer Nick Zito.  We know the road to Louisville certainly can run through Tampa!

If War Pass is Street Sense, then you might ask, “who is Hard Spun?”  In my opinion it is the hard-knocking Pyro.  He just had another huge win in the Louisiana Derby coming off his victory in the Risen Star.  That’s enough to separate him from the masses.  However, Circular Quay won the Louisiana Derby last year and had not won another race…until yesterday at the Fairgrounds!  The phrase “horse for the course” comes to mind for both Circular Quay and Pyro.  Will Asmussen put Pyro on the shelf for six weeks as Pletcher did Circular Quay?  Not if he’s smart….and he is!  A little bird told me he’s headed to Louisvile via Lexington.  That’s one way to bolster your chances in the “Bluegrass” state.  Pletcher obviously had so many good horses in the stable last year he was doing the “dancing with the stars shuffle” to give each one a chance to properly audition.  That left Circular Quay idle…and we know that’s not the place to be if you want to be competitive on the first Saturday in May.

Okay!  We have identified two of the three major players as of this writing.  I know what you are thinking!!  Where’s Curlin????  Well, my friends (McCain speak) , the answer is the same as last year…..Gulfstream Park!  Two days after we left Gulfstream at the conclusion of our first annual MTG partners trip, a horse named Big Brown was scheduled to run in a turf allowance race.  He had broken his maiden impressively by more than 11 lengths at Saratoga in 2007 and is now under the guidance of Rick Dutrow for IEAH stables.   Fortunately for these folks, mother nature had something else in mind on March 5th and the races were taken off the turf at Gulfstream.  Big Brown didn’t seem to mind.  The son of Boundary proved to be versatile, winning by more than 12 lengths and making a mockery of the remaining decent allowance field.   Sound familiar?  (Note:  See Curlin’s pps).  Big Brown’s 104 Beyer had the racing nation buzzing like a group of desperate………….honeybees!  I’ll bet you thought I was going to say “housewives” didn’t you?  Can Big Brown go the distance?  Is he “experienced” enough to take on these horses who have been “prepping” for months?  OR……..could he be a “flash in the pan” without the credentials for a proper campaign?  (No, I don’t wonder if he could answer the phone in the White House at 3:00 am!!)  It looks like his next start will be in the Florida Derby.  He’s not taking the road through Arkansas but, hey, that path doesn’t necessarily get you to the “big dance” every time anyway.  ( I keep hearing……..”you can’t win without Florida”)

Who else do we like right now?  Hmm….Denis of Cork has been a “household” favorite for months.  We also have to give credit to Visionaire for his foggy victory in the Gotham.  It’s nice to see Michael Matz back in the Derby trail “mix.”  And, we don’t want to forget Zito’s “other” horses…Chad’s favorite, Cool Coal Man, who upset the orange cart in the Fountain of Youth  and Fierce Wind who took the Sam F Davis in Tampa. 

For what it’s worth, I don’t think you can ever completely leave Billy Mott out of the picture.  Court Vision is another IEAH stables contender co-owned with Winstar .  He is a son of Gulch and should be able to go the distance.

Out on the west coast Colonel John can solidify his right to punch the ticket to Louisville in the Santa Anita Derby for trainer Eoin Harty.  And, we have always been fond of Georgie Boy.  Why?  Just a hunch.  Tribal Rule and Kathy Walsh aren’t exactly household names on the Derby trail; and, Georgie Boy would have to prove he could stretch out.  Lots of ifs and what ifs…..but I like him.

Finally, Check It Twice has been on my list of suspects for a while.  This son of Repent and a mare named Christmas List seems to be the last Repent standing as Atoned and Crown of Thorns have faded from the Derby spotlight.  Check It Twice showed a little run at Calder; but folks, that’s a long way from here and perhaps the wrong (Florida) way to Louisville.  Professor Chadwick C. Biscuit tells me he has found a new home in the Pletcher barn.

If you are playing the Derby futures this weekend, I’d certainly hit that “all other three year old” button a time or two.   Good luck to all of our friends out there with a “dream” for this year.  We hope to join you in the not so distant future!

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